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Home > Macroeconomic Issues Viewpoints > Understanding and Forecasting the Credit Cycle—Why the Mainstream Paradigm in Economics and Finance Collapsed

Macroeconomic Issues Viewpoints

Understanding and Forecasting the Credit Cycle—Why the Mainstream Paradigm in Economics and Finance Collapsed

by Richard A. Werner

Introduction

Professor Richard A. Werner, DPhil (Oxon), BSc (Economics, LSE), began his academic career as Marie Curie Fellow of the European Commission at the University of Oxford. From 1997 to 2004 he was Assistant Professor at Sophia University, Tokyo. Since 2004 he has been at the University of Southampton, School of Management, where he is Chair in International Banking and founding director of the Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development.

Professor Werner has two decades of experience in the financial sector, including as chief economist at Jardine Fleming Securities (Asia) Ltd, Senior Managing Director at Bear Stearns Asset Management, and as senior consultant or visiting researcher at the Asian Development Bank, the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan, the Japan Development Bank and the Nomura Research Institute. Richard served as member of the asset allocation board of a US$6.5bn Japanese corporate pension fund, and has been working as global macro fund manager and provider of forecasting services and economic policy advice to investors and governments.

His book Princes of the Yen was a no. 1 bestseller in Japan in 2001. In his 2005 book New Paradigm in Macroeconomics, he warned about the dangers of “recurring banking crises,” including the pending financial collapse in the UK, and detailed the required policy responses. Richard has been voted one of the top economists by investor surveys and is sought as a commentator by the media. The World Economic Forum, Davos, selected him as “Global Leader for Tomorrow” in 2003.

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Further reading

Book:

  • Richard A. Werner. New Paradigm in Macroeconomics. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005.

Articles:

  • Werner, Richard A. “Towards a new monetary paradigm: A quantity theorem of disaggregated credit, with evidence from Japan.” Kredit und Kapital (1997): 276–239.
  • Werner, Richard A. “Soundness of financial systems: Bank restructuring and its impact on the economy.” Paper presented at the International Conference on Central Banking Policies, May 14–15, 1999, Macao. Published as: Werner, Richard A., “Post-crisis banking sector restructuring and its impact on economic growth.” Japanese Economy 30:6 (November–December 2002): 3–37.

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