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Home > Asset Management Best Practice > The Ability of Ratings to Predict the Performance of Exchange-Traded Funds

Asset Management Best Practice

The Ability of Ratings to Predict the Performance of Exchange-Traded Funds

by Gerasimos G. Rompotis

Executive Summary

  • Rating of the past performance of securities is considered crucial by investors when they make investment decisions.

  • Several rating methods are used in the financial literature and by the investing community to rate the performance of securities.

  • Performance is considered to be in some way predictable, and prediction is based on past performance.

  • This article empirically assesses the rating of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and prediction of their performance.

  • The methods examined are the Morningstar rating process, the excess return, the Sharpe ratio, and the Treynor ratio.

  • The empirical results reveal a high consistency among the rating methods and a sufficient level of predictability of ETF performance.

  • ETF performance is persistent over the short term.

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Further reading

Articles:

  • Blake, Christopher R., and Matthew R. Morey. “Morningstar ratings and mutual fund performance.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35:3 (September 2000): 451–483. Online at: dx.doi.org/10.2307/2676213
  • Blume, Marshall E. “An anatomy of Morningstar ratings.” Financial Analysts Journal 54:2 (March/April 1998): 19–27. Online at: dx.doi.org/10.2469/faj.v54.n2.2162
  • Khorana, Ajay, and Edward Nelling. “The determinants and predictive ability of mutual fund ratings.” Journal of Investing 7:3 (Fall 1998): 61–66. Online at: dx.doi.org/10.3905/joi.1998.408470

Reports:

  • Sharpe, William F. “Morningstar’s risk-adjusted ratings.” Working paper. January 1998. Online at: www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/msrar/msrar.htm
  • Wermers, Russ. “Is money really ‘smart’? New evidence on the relation between mutual fund flows, manager behavior, and performance persistence.” Working paper. November 2003. Online at: ssrn.com/abstract=414420

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